Predictive Modelling and Forecasting of the Transmission of COVID-19 in Africa Using Artificial Intelligence.
The University of Buea is partnering with York University as well as other institutions and organizations in Africa to use local data, Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Modelling expertise to manage disease spread, with focus on the current COVID-19 Pandemic.
Researchers and Mathematicians from the Mathematical Biology Unit in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Buea, Cameroon are joining York University, Canada, and other organizations across Africa to predict the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and provide modelling that will help national policymakers from across Africa manage the virus in real time.
The Mathematical Biology Unit of the Department of Mathematics at the University of Buea has been the hub for postgraduate training and research in Biomathematical Modelling, especially the development of models for the epidemiology of malaria and mosquito dynamics for several years now. This maths modelling unit is currently in the process of being upgraded into an Applied Mathematical and Computer Assisted Modelling Unit (AMCAMU), still to be hosted by the Department of mathematics in the Faculty of Science at the University of Buea. The upgraded structure of the unit will bring on board aspects of Artificial Intelligence as well as open up avenues for collaboration with sister structures in the Department of Computer Science and the Faculty of Engineering in the University of Buea. The upgrade will better equip the unit to engage the artificial intelligence modelling aspect of the COVID-19 research project.
The COVID-19 research project is the outcome of international collaboration by researchers in Mathematics and will come to complement the effort of the Government of Cameroon in the fight against COVID-19 in particular and disease modelling in general. It is worth noting that the University of Buea is one of the Test Centres for COVID-19 in Cameroon and the Laboratory for Emerging Infectious Diseases, of the University of Buea, has been leading the COVID-19 response action plan for the University of Buea and the South West Region so far.
The project, “Predictive Modelling and Forecasting of the Transmission of COVID-19 in Africa using Artificial Intelligence”, will receive more than $1.2 million in funding from the Canadian International Development and Research Centre (IDRC). It is one of nine projects selected for funding through the Global South AI4COVID Response Program, focused on low and middle-income countries. (https://www.idrc.ca/en/news/using-ai-and-data-against-pandemic-new-projects-global-south). The core of the project will be coordinated from York University in Canada under the leadership of Dr Jude Dzevela Kong, Researcher at York University, as Principal Investigator. Subgrants go to research centres in Cameroon, South Africa, AIMS, Nigeria, Botswana, Rwanda, Namibia, and shall involve a cross section of scientists that together constitute the consortium.
It is hoped that this timely collaboration, which brings together University of Buea’s research strengths in disease modelling with other African expertise in global health, artificial intelligence and emergency management as well as use of Artificial Intelligence in modelling, will allow University of Buea staff researchers and students of disease modelling to access the practical skills, perspectives and sensitivity that international experts have in dealing with large scale disease management while capitalising on those skills that only local organizations can provide. The hope is the enhancing of outcomes of the project as well as the creation of positive change in local communities. The University of Buea Mathematicians are looking forward with optimism to working with colleagues in Buea, Cameroon, and across Africa to contribute to the global effort to contain the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In his letter to the Minister of Scientific Research requesting authorisation from the Government of Cameroon for the project to take off at the University of Buea, the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Buea writes, “The University of Buea is pleased to be part of a consortium sponsored by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) to carry out the project”. He adds “…Together, Scientists in the University of Buea and York University will develop state of the art statistical and mathematical models to analyse epidemic data, with the aim of improving our understanding of how the COVID-19 is spreading and asses the impact of interventions while supporting government policies towards control strategies”. The supporting role played by the mathematical modelling sciences in the theatre of operations engendered by this disease is clearly understood by the authorities of the University of Buea.
Dr Gideon Akumah Ngwa, an Associate Professor of Biomathematical Modelling, an Oxford trained Mathematician in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Buea, Cameroon, is leading the team at the University of Buea. He and his unit will be working with an interdisciplinary team of scientists of more than 50 researchers from key academic and government institutions in several African countries and Canada.
The contributions from the mathematicians on the project will primarily be for model building and analysis. There are also aspects of use of artificial intelligence, data science, optimisation of control strategies and many more. The project will also examine ways to address the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 prevention and treatment.
There shall be periodic seminars and conferences to discuss and announce the progress of the project.
Information about this grant is already available in the international media